When to lock, not whom: Managing epidemics using time-based restrictions

Yinon Bar-On; Tatiana Baron; Ofer Cornfeld; Eran Yashiv

doi:10.1016/j.red.2023.01.004

When to lock, not whom: Managing epidemics using time-based restrictions

Yinon Bar-On, Tatiana Baron, Ofer Cornfeld, Eran Yashiv^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Economics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

We present novel policy tools to manage epidemics. Rather than using prevalent population restrictions, these policy strategies are based on cyclical time restrictions. Key findings on the outcomes of such policy strategies include: a significant improvement of social welfare, substantially lessening the trade-offs between economic activity and health outcomes; optimally-derived timings of interventions are shown to suppress the disease, while maintaining reasonable economic activity; and outcomes are superior to the actual experience of New York State and Florida over the course of 2020.

Original language	English
Journal	Review of Economic Dynamics
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2023.01.004
State	Accepted/In press - 2023

Keywords

Cyclical strategies
Endogenous individual response
Epidemic/pandemic management
Lockdown
Policy frontier
Social planner

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10.1016/j.red.2023.01.004

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abstract = "We present novel policy tools to manage epidemics. Rather than using prevalent population restrictions, these policy strategies are based on cyclical time restrictions. Key findings on the outcomes of such policy strategies include: a significant improvement of social welfare, substantially lessening the trade-offs between economic activity and health outcomes; optimally-derived timings of interventions are shown to suppress the disease, while maintaining reasonable economic activity; and outcomes are superior to the actual experience of New York State and Florida over the course of 2020.",

keywords = "Cyclical strategies, Endogenous individual response, Epidemic/pandemic management, Lockdown, Policy frontier, Social planner",

author = "Yinon Bar-On and Tatiana Baron and Ofer Cornfeld and Eran Yashiv",

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year = "2023",

doi = "10.1016/j.red.2023.01.004",

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AU - Cornfeld, Ofer

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PY - 2023

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AB - We present novel policy tools to manage epidemics. Rather than using prevalent population restrictions, these policy strategies are based on cyclical time restrictions. Key findings on the outcomes of such policy strategies include: a significant improvement of social welfare, substantially lessening the trade-offs between economic activity and health outcomes; optimally-derived timings of interventions are shown to suppress the disease, while maintaining reasonable economic activity; and outcomes are superior to the actual experience of New York State and Florida over the course of 2020.

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KW - Endogenous individual response

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JO - Review of Economic Dynamics

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When to lock, not whom: Managing epidemics using time-based restrictions

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Keywords

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