Validation of the INCREMENT-SOT-CPE score in a large cohort of liver transplant recipients with carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales infection

Background: Management of infections due to carbapenemase-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients remains a difficult challenge. The INCREMENT-SOT-CPE score has been specifically developed from SOT recipients to stratify mortality risk, but an external validation is lacking. Methods: Multicenter retrospective cohort study of liver transplant (LT) recipients colonized with CRE infection who developed infection after transplant over 7-year period. Primary endpoint was all-cause 30-day mortality from infection onset. A comparison between INCREMENT-SOT-CPE and other selected scores was performed. A two-level mixed effects logistic regression model with random effects for the center was fitted. Performance characteristics at optimal cut-point were calculated. Multivariable Cox regression analysis of risk factors for all-cause 30-day mortality was carried out. Results: Overall, 250 CRE carriers developed infection after LT and were analyzed. The median age was 55 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 46–62) and 157 were males (62.8%). All-cause 30-day mortality was 35.6%. A sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score ≥ 11 showed a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy of 69.7%, 76.4%, 62.0%, 82.0%, and 74.0%, respectively. An INCREMENT-SOT-CPE ≥ 11 reported a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and accuracy of 73.0%, 62.1%, 51.6%, 80.6% and 66.0%, respectively. At multivariable analysis acute renal failure, prolonged mechanical ventilation, INCREMENT-SOT-CPE score ≥ 11 and SOFA score ≥ 11 were independently associated with all-cause 30-day mortality, while a tigecycline-based targeted regimen was found to be protective. Conclusions: Both INCREMENT-SOT-CPE ≥ 11 and SOFA ≥ 11 were identified as strong predictors of all-cause 30-day mortality in a large cohort of CRE carriers developing infection after LT. (Figure presented.).