Thinking one step ahead: The use of conjectures in competitor analysis

Raphael Amit*, Ian Domowitz, Chaim Fershtman

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

44 Scopus citations

Abstract

An assessment of opponents' reactions to strategic and functional area policy decisions is shown to require knowledge concerning opponents' beliefs about the firm's behavior. This study introduces a methodology for incorporating such conjectures into the business planning process. It presents an analytical measure for these conjectural variations and discusses several illustrations. Examples of the application of the framework are provided by the Japanese flat glass industry and the U.S. domestic coffee roasting industry. The use of a broad range of conjectural variations in competitor analysis is discussed, and implications for business strategy formulation are highlighted.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)431-442
Number of pages12
JournalStrategic Management Journal
Volume9
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - 1988
Externally publishedYes

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