The projected death of the Fertile Crescent

Pinhas Alpert; Fengjun Jin; Akio Kitoh

doi:10.1007/978-94-007-7353-0_9

The projected death of the Fertile Crescent

Pinhas Alpert^*, Fengjun Jin, Akio Kitoh

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of the Environment and Earth Sciences

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter › peer-review

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

Projections of rainfall and stream flowin the Mediterranean and the Fertile Crescent of the Middle East are presented here for the end of the twenty-first century. Up until recently, this has not been possible due to the lack of observed data and atmospheric models with sufficient resolution. An innovative super-high-resolution (20-km) global climate model is employed, which properly reproduces the moisture fields of the present-day climate over the study area. The model projected that the Fertile Crescent will lose its current shape and may disappear altogether by the end of this century. The annual discharge of the Euphrates River will decrease by 29–73 %, as will thestreamflow in the Jordan River. Thus countermeasures for water shortages will become much more difficult.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	A World After Climate Change and Culture-Shift
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Pages	193-203
Number of pages	11
ISBN (Electronic)	9789400773530
ISBN (Print)	9789400773523
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7353-0_9
State	Published - 1 Jan 2014

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The projected death of the Fertile Crescent

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