The predictive value of the body mass index for systolic blood pressure 12-15 years later in young air force personnel.

The records of 719 male air force personnel, aged 18-30 in 1968, were searched for the results of the systolic blood pressure (SBP), and height and weight examinations at entry in 1968 and after 12-15 years follow-up. The body mass index (BMI = weight/height2) was calculated and an elevated value was defined as one in the upper quintile. An elevated blood pressure, defined as an SBP greater than or equal to 140 mm Hg, was found on follow-up in 4.7% of the entire cohort, in 6.0% (4/67) of those with an elevated SBP and a normal BMI at entry, in 10.2% (12/117) of those with a normal SBP and an elevated BMI at entry, and in 20.0% (7/35) of those with both elevated BMI and SBP greater than or equal to 140 mm Hg at entry. Of those with a normal SBP and BMI at entry, 2.2% (11/500) had an elevated SBP on follow-up. We conclude that BMI in young men can predict SBP 12-15 years later, and that this predictive value is at least as high as that of the resting blood pressure.