@article{acab8abfd9c146b484dc86c08c3b1809,
title = "The predictive role of counterfactuals",
abstract = "We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction.",
keywords = "Counterfactuals, Induction, Prediction",
author = "\{Di Tillio\}, Alfredo and Itzhak Gilboa and Larry Samuelson",
note = "Funding Information: Acknowledgments We thank Dov Samet and David Schmeidler for conversations that motivated and influenced this work. We are also grateful to Joe Altonji and Brian Hill for discussions, comments, and references. Itzhak Gilboa gratefully acknowledges ISF Grant 396/10 and ERC Grant 269754; Larry Samuelson gratefully acknowledges NSF Grant SES-0850263.",
year = "2013",
month = feb,
doi = "10.1007/s11238-011-9263-6",
language = "אנגלית",
volume = "74",
pages = "167--182",
journal = "Theory and Decision",
issn = "0040-5833",
publisher = "Springer Netherlands",
number = "2",
}