The predictive role of counterfactuals

Alfredo Di Tillio*, Itzhak Gilboa, Larry Samuelson

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)167-182
Number of pages16
JournalTheory and Decision
Issue number2
StatePublished - Feb 2013


  • Counterfactuals
  • Induction
  • Prediction


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