The negative impact of biological variation in the effect and clearance of warfarin on methods for prediction of dose requirements

Within-individual variation over time in the clearance (Cl) and effect (PT%) of warfarin, was measured in 25 inpatients (group I) studied after standard single or individualized split loading doses and 1-3 times (n = 16) 8-16 weeks later during maintenance. Mean Cl (2.5 ± 0.9 ml/min) was similar in both phases but significant changes occurred in 6/16 patients, exceeding those expected from within-individual variation alone (defined by its 95% tolerance limits -24% to +62%). Initial PT% (21 ± 5) was unaffected by dosing schedule, total or free plasma warfarin, varying between patients by only 18-24%. Mean initial and maintenance dose-PT% ratios (8.2 mg/d: 21% and 4.1 mg/d: 40%) were similar but significant changes in sensitivity to warfarin occurred in 4/16 patients. In group I and 64 other outpatients on maintenance therapy, between-individual variability was 36-52% for Cl and 49-56% for effect. PT% correlated best (r = 0.56) with free and total plasma warfarin but poorly with dose (r = 0.29), with only 30% of PT% variance explained at best, due to high between patient variability. Warfarin dose prediction whether based on extrapolation from initial effects to the maintenance phase, or on iterative methods not allowing for between- or within-patient variation in warfarin clearance or effect which may occur independently over time, have not improved on empirical therapy. This, due to the elements of biological variability as well as the intricacy of the warfarin - prothrombin complex interaction not captured by any kinetic-dynamic model used for prediction to date.