TY - JOUR
T1 - Secular decrease in blood pressure and reduction in mortality from cardiovascular disease in Israeli workers
AU - Froom, Paul
AU - Goldbourt, U.
PY - 2004/2
Y1 - 2004/2
N2 - The reasons for the dramatic reduction in age-adjusted mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) since the 1970s in developed countries remain uncertain. In the following study we compare the cardiovascular and all-cause mortality rates over an 11-year period in two well-defined employed male cohorts aged 40-69 years old recruited 24 years apart. Blood pressure and other risk markers for CVD were assessed at the time of inception (1963 for 10 048 male civil servants and 1985-1987 for 2237 male industrial workers). Compared to the 1987 cohort, the 1963 cohort show an increase of 8.7 mmHg in the mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) (95% confidence interval (CI): 7.7, 9.6) and a concomitant hazard ratio for CVD mortality of 1.47 (95% CI: 1.16, 1.87). After adding SBP to the analysis, the hazard ratio for CVD mortality in the 1963 cohort decreased to 1.18 (95% CI: 0.88, 1.43). Adding the other risk modifiers to the analysis did not modify the hazard ratio to the same extent. Similar results were obtained for all-cause mortality. We conclude that declining blood pressure values are a major factor in explaining the secular decrease in CVD mortality over a period of 24 years in Israel.
AB - The reasons for the dramatic reduction in age-adjusted mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) since the 1970s in developed countries remain uncertain. In the following study we compare the cardiovascular and all-cause mortality rates over an 11-year period in two well-defined employed male cohorts aged 40-69 years old recruited 24 years apart. Blood pressure and other risk markers for CVD were assessed at the time of inception (1963 for 10 048 male civil servants and 1985-1987 for 2237 male industrial workers). Compared to the 1987 cohort, the 1963 cohort show an increase of 8.7 mmHg in the mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) (95% confidence interval (CI): 7.7, 9.6) and a concomitant hazard ratio for CVD mortality of 1.47 (95% CI: 1.16, 1.87). After adding SBP to the analysis, the hazard ratio for CVD mortality in the 1963 cohort decreased to 1.18 (95% CI: 0.88, 1.43). Adding the other risk modifiers to the analysis did not modify the hazard ratio to the same extent. Similar results were obtained for all-cause mortality. We conclude that declining blood pressure values are a major factor in explaining the secular decrease in CVD mortality over a period of 24 years in Israel.
KW - Blood pressure
KW - Cardiovascular disease mortality
KW - Risk factors
KW - Secular change
KW - Workers
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=1342305432&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/sj.jhh.1001645
DO - 10.1038/sj.jhh.1001645
M3 - ???researchoutput.researchoutputtypes.contributiontojournal.article???
AN - SCOPUS:1342305432
SN - 0950-9240
VL - 18
SP - 113
EP - 118
JO - Journal of Human Hypertension
JF - Journal of Human Hypertension
IS - 2
ER -