Revisiting Iran's nuclear rationales

What is the rationale behind Iran's nuclear policy? This article identifies and reviews five answers: (i) Economy, mainly energy needs; (ii) Identity politics, pride and prestige; (iii) Deterrence of foreign intervention; (iv) Compellence to boost regional influence; and (v) Domestic politics, mitigating, through 'nuclear diversion' the regime's domestic crisis of legitimacy. How should we assess the theoretical validity and practical viability of these accounts? I suggest four factors: (i) Compatibility, the extent to which the various rationales are mutually exclusive; (ii) Consistency, the historical stability of the nuclear motivation; (iii) Rationality, the relevancy of ascribing rationality/irrationality to Iran in order to ascertain its nuclear rationales; and (iv) Falsifiability, our ability to refute theses on nuclear motivations. The article addresses recent events, including Rouhani's election and the Geneva interim agreement, and concludes with policy implications.