Response to chemotherapy predicts survival following resection of hepatic colo-rectal metastases in patients treated with neoadjuvant therapy

Background: Prognosis of patients following resection of CRC metastases to the liver has traditionally been predicted by clinical risk factors. In the era of neoadjuvant chemotherapy, determination of new prognostic indicators of outcome are necessary. Methods: This retrospective study includes patients with CRC liver metastases, who received oxaliplatin or irinotecan based neoadjuvant chemotherapy and underwent R0 resection. Patients were followed by CT and PET-CT, before, during and after chemotherapy and surgery. The predictive value of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center Clinical Score (MSKCC-CS) and degree of response to chemotherapy (measured by CT and PET-CT), were analyzed by univariate and multivariate COX regression. Results: Included are 54 patients. Overall 1-, 2-, 3-year survival rates 88%, 70%, and 39%. Response to chemotherapy on CT was a significant predictor of survival on univariate (P = 0.03) and multivariate analysis (P = 0.03), whereas MSKCC-CS and response to chemotherapy on PETCT were not. Multivariate analysis demonstrated response to chemotherapy as a predictor of time to recurrence on CT (P = 0.02) and PET-CT (P = 0.03), while the MSKCC-CS (P = 0.64) was not. Conclusions: In this cohort of patients treated by neoadjuvant chemotherapy, the outcome was not predicted by the traditional clinical scoring system, but rather by response to chemotherapy as evaluated by CT and PET-CT.