Abstract
Background: Contemporary clinical risk stratification schemata for predicting stroke and thromboembolism (TE) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are largely derived from risk factors identified from trial cohorts. Thus, many potential risk factors have not been included. Methods: We refined the 2006 Birmingham/National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) stroke risk stratification schema into a risk factor-based approach by reclassifying and/or incorporating additional new risk factors where relevant. This schema was then compared with existing stroke risk stratification schema in a real-world cohort of patients with AF (n = 1,084) from the Euro Heart Survey for AF. Results: Risk categorization differed widely between the different schemes compared. Patients classified as high risk ranged from 10.2% with the Framingham schema to 75.7% with the Birmingham 2009 schema. The classic CHADS 2 (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age > 75, Diabetes, prior Stroke/transient ischemic attack) schema categorized the largest proportion (61.9%) into the intermediate-risk strata, whereas the Birmingham 2009 schema classified 15.1% into this category. The Birmingham 2009 schema classified only 9.2% as low risk, whereas the Framingham scheme categorized 48.3% as low risk. Calculated C-statistics suggested modest predictive value of all schema for TE. The Birmingham 2009 schema fared marginally better (C-statistic, 0.606) than CHADS 2 . However, those classified as low risk by the Birmingham 2009 and NICE schema were truly low risk with no TE events recorded, whereas TE events occurred in 1.4% of low-risk CHADS 2 subjects. When expressed as a scoring system, the Birmingham 2009 schema (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc acronym) showed an increase in TE rate with increasing scores ( P value for trend = .003). Conclusion: Our novel, simple stroke risk stratification schema, based on a risk factor approach, provides some improvement in predictive value for TE over the CHADS 2 schema, with low event rates in low-risk subjects and the classification of only a small proportion of subjects into the intermediate-risk category. This schema could improve our approach to stroke risk stratification in patients with AF.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 263-272 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | Chest |
| Volume | 137 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - 1 Feb 2010 |
Funding
| Funders | Funder number |
|---|---|
| Austrian Heart Foundation | |
| Euro Heart Survey | |
| Netherlands Heart Foundation | |
| Spanish Cardiac Society | |
| Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation | |
| AstraZeneca | |
| Sanofi | |
| Österreichische Kardiologische Gesellschaft | |
| Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia |
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In: Chest, Vol. 137, No. 2, 01.02.2010, p. 263-272.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Refining clinical risk stratification for predicting stroke and thromboembolism in atrial fibrillation using a novel risk factor-based approach
T2 - The Euro Heart Survey on atrial fibrillation
AU - Lip, Gregory Y.H.
AU - Nieuwlaat, Robby
AU - Pisters, Ron
AU - Lane, Deirdre A.
AU - Crijns, Harry J.G.M.
AU - Andresen, Dieter
AU - Camm, A. John
AU - Davies, Wynn
AU - Capucci, Alessandro
AU - Le´vy, Samuel
AU - Breithardt, Gu¨nter
AU - Cobbe, Stuart
AU - Le Heuzey, Jean Yves
AU - Santini, Massimo
AU - Vardas, Panos
AU - Manini, Malika
AU - Bramley, Claire
AU - Laforest, Vale´rie
AU - Taylor, Charles
AU - Del Gaiso, Susan
AU - Huber, Kurt
AU - De Backer, Guy
AU - Sirakova, Vera
AU - Cerbak, Roman
AU - Thayssen, Per
AU - Lehto, Seppo
AU - Blanc, Jean Jacques
AU - Delahaye, Franc¸ois
AU - Kobulia, Bondo
AU - Zeymer, Uwe
AU - Cokkinos, Dennis
AU - Karlocai, Kristof
AU - Graham, Ian
AU - Shelley, Emer
AU - Behar, Shlomo
AU - Maggioni, Aldo
AU - Gonc¸alves, Lino
AU - Grabauskiene, Virginija
AU - Asmussen, Inger
AU - Deckers, Jaap
AU - Stepinska, Janina
AU - Mareev, Vyacheslav
AU - Vasiljevic, Zorana
AU - Riecansky, Igor
AU - Kenda, Miran F.
AU - Alonso, Angeles
AU - Lopez-Sendon, Jose´ Luis
AU - Rosengren, Annika
AU - Buser, Peter
AU - Okay, Tugrul
AU - Sychov, Oleg
AU - Fox, Kevin
AU - Schofield, Peter
AU - Simoons, Maarten
AU - Wood, David
AU - Battler, Alex
AU - Boersma, Eric
AU - Fox, Kim
AU - Komajda, Michel
AU - McGregor, Keith
AU - Mulder, Barbara
AU - Priori, Sylvia
AU - Ryde´n, Lars
AU - Vahanian, Alec
AU - Wijns, William
AU - Sanofi-Aventis,
AU - Grigoryan, S. V.
AU - Apetyan, I.
AU - Aroyan, S.
AU - Azarapetyan, L.
AU - Anvari, Anahit
AU - Gottsauner-Wolf, Michael
AU - Pfaffenberger, Stefan
AU - Aydinkoc, Kadriye
AU - Kalla, Karim
AU - Penka, Martina
AU - Drexel, Heinz
AU - Langer, Peter
AU - Pierard, Luc A.
AU - Legrand, Victor
AU - Blommaert, Dominique
AU - Schroeder, E.
AU - Mancini, Isabelle
AU - Geelen, P.
AU - Brugada, P.
AU - De Zutter, Marc
AU - Vrints, Christiaan
AU - Vercammen, Marc
AU - Morissens, Marielle
AU - Borisov, Boyanov
AU - Petrov, Valentin Asenov
AU - Marinova, Maria
AU - Assen, Alexandrova
AU - Goudev, Rachev
AU - Peychev, Yavor
AU - Stoyanovsky, Vassil
AU - Stoynev, Evgeni
AU - Kranjcevic, Stjepan
AU - Moutiris, Joseph
AU - Ioannides, Marios
AU - Evequoz, Dominique
AU - Spacilova, Jaroslava
AU - Novak, Miroslav
AU - Eisenberger, Martin
AU - Mullerova, Jolana
AU - Kautzner, Josef
AU - Riedlbauchova, Lucie
AU - Petru`, Jan
AU - Taborsky, Milos
AU - Cappelen, Helle
AU - Sharaf, Yasser A.
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AU - Tammam, Khalid
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AU - Aviles, F. Fernandez
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AU - Sanchez, Luis Tercedor
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AU - Garcia, Antonio J.Munoz
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AU - Juango, M. Soledad Alcasena
AU - Berjon-Reyero, Jesus
AU - Alegret, Josep M.
AU - Fernandez, J. M.Cruz
AU - Carrascosa, Cesar
AU - Romero, Rosillo Antonio Fernandez
AU - Lara, Miguel Gonza´lez
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AU - Irurita, Maria
AU - Guttierez, Norbero Herrera
AU - Rubio, Juan Ramon Siles
AU - Antorrena, Isabel
AU - Paves, Alicia Bautista
AU - Salvador, Antonio
AU - Orriach, Maria Dolores
AU - Garcia, A. Alonso
AU - Epelde, Francisco
AU - Martinez, Vicente Bertomeu
AU - Sanchez, Antonio Berruezo
AU - Galvez, Carlos Pinero
AU - Rivero, Rafael Fernandez
AU - Madrid, Antonio Hernandez
AU - Baron-Esquivias, Gonzalo
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AU - Guindal, Jose´ Antonio Gomez
AU - Vera, Tomas Ripoll
AU - Fernandez, Emilio Luengo
AU - Gayan, Ricardo
AU - Garcia, Javier
AU - Bodegas, Andres
AU - Lopez, Jesus Toril
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AU - Cabezas, Cristobal Lozano
AU - de Castroviejo, Eduardo Vazquez Ruiz
AU - Bellido, Juan Munoz
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AU - Nieminen, Markku
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AU - Shelton, Rhidian
AU - Choudhury, A.
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AU - Marketou, Mary
AU - Patsourakos, Nikolaos
AU - Czopf, Laszlo
AU - Halmosi, Robert
AU - Pre´da, Istvan
AU - Csoti, Eva
AU - Badics, Andrea
AU - Strasberg, Boris
AU - Freedberg, Nahum A.
AU - Katz, Amos
AU - Zalzstein, Eli
AU - Grosbard, Aviva
AU - Goldhammer, E.
AU - Nahir, Menachem
AU - Epstein, Menashe
AU - Vider, Ida
AU - Luria, David
AU - Mandelzweig, Lori
AU - Aloisi, Bruno
AU - Cavallaro, Alfio
AU - Antonielli, Emanuele
AU - Doronzo, Baldassarre
AU - Pancaldo, Diego
AU - Mazzola, Carlo
AU - Buontempi, Liliana
AU - Calvi, Valeria
AU - Giuffrida, Giuseppe
AU - Figlia, Antonino
AU - Ippolito, Francesco
AU - Gelmini, Gian Paolo
AU - Gaibazzi, N.
AU - Ziacchi, Virgilio
AU - De Tommasi, Francesco
AU - Lombardi, Federico
AU - Fiorentini, Cesare
AU - Terranova, Paolo
AU - Maiolino, Pietro
AU - Albunni, Muhamad
AU - Pinna-Pintor, Plinio
AU - Fumagalli, Stefano
AU - Masotti, Guilio
AU - Boncinelli, Lorenzo
AU - Rossi, Domenico
AU - Santoro, Giovanni Maria
AU - Fioranelli, Massimo
AU - Naccarella, Franco
AU - Maranga, Stefano Sdringola
AU - Lepera, Giovannina
AU - Bresciani, Barbara
AU - Seragnoli, Elena
AU - Forti, Mara Cantelli
AU - Cortina, Valentina
AU - Baciarello, Giacinto
AU - Cicconetti, Paolo
AU - Lax, Antonio
AU - Vitali, Federica
AU - Igidbashian, Diran
AU - Scarpino, Luisa
AU - Terrazzino, Sergio
AU - Tavazzi, Luigi
AU - Cantu, Francesco
AU - Pentimalli, Francesco
AU - Novo, Salvatore
AU - Coppola, Giuseppe
AU - Zingarini, Gianluca
AU - Ambrozio, Giuseppe
AU - Moruzzi, Paolo
AU - Callegari, Sergio
AU - Saccomanno, Gabriele
AU - Russo, Paolo
AU - Carbonieri, Emanuele
AU - Paino, Anna
AU - Zanetta, Marco
AU - Barducci, Enzo
AU - Cemin, Roberto
AU - Rauhe, Werner
AU - Pitscheider, Walter
AU - Meloni, Marina
AU - Marchi, Sergio Mariano
AU - Di Gennaro, Marco
AU - Calcagno, Sergio
AU - Squaratti, Paola
AU - Quartili, Francesco
AU - Bertocchi, Patrizia
AU - De Martini, Mario
AU - Mantovani, Giuseppe
AU - Komorovsky, Roman
AU - Desideri, Alessandro
AU - Celegon, Leopoldo
AU - Tarantini, Luigi
AU - Catania, Giuseppe
AU - Lucci, Donata
AU - Bianchini, Francesca
AU - Puodziukynas, Aras
AU - Kavoliuniene, Ausra
AU - Barauskiene, Vilija
AU - Aidietis, Audrius
AU - Barysiene, Jurate
AU - Vysniauskas, Vitas
AU - Zukauskiene, Irena
AU - Kazakeviciene, Nijole
AU - Georgievska-Ismail, Ljubica
AU - Poposka, Lidija
AU - Vataman, Eleonora
AU - Grosu, Aurel A.
AU - op Reimer, Wilma Scholte
AU - de Swart, Esther
AU - Lenzen, Mattie
AU - Jansen, Chris
AU - Brons, Ritzo
AU - Tebbe, Henriette
AU - van Hoogenhuyze, D. C.A.
AU - Veerhoek, M. J.
AU - Kamps, Maria
AU - Haan, D.
AU - van Rijn, Nitolanda
AU - Bootsma, Annette
AU - Baur, Leo
AU - van den, Adrie
AU - Fransen, Heidi
AU - Eurlings, Luc
AU - Meeder, Joan
AU - De Boer, M. J.
AU - Winter, Jobst
AU - Broers, Herman
AU - Werter, Chris
AU - Bijl, M.
AU - Versluis, Saskia
AU - Milkowska, Malgorzata
AU - Wozakowska-Kaplon, Beata
AU - Janion, Marianna
AU - Lepska, Lidia
AU - Swiatecka, Grazyna
AU - Kokowicz, Piotr
AU - Cybulski, Jacek
AU - Gorecki, Aleksandr
AU - Szulc, Marcin
AU - Rekosz, Jerzy
AU - Manczak, Rafal
AU - Wnuk-Wojnar, Anna Maria
AU - Trusz-Gluza, M.
AU - Rybicka-Musialik, Anna
AU - Myszor, Jaroslaw
AU - Szpajer, Michal
AU - Cymerman, Krzysztof
AU - Sadowski, Jerzy
AU - Sniezek-Maciejewska, Maria
AU - Ciesla-Dul, Mariola
AU - Gorkiewicz-Kot, Izabela
AU - Grodzicki, Tomasz
AU - Rewiuk, Krzysztof
AU - Kubik, Leszek
AU - Lewit, Jacek
AU - de Sousa, Joao Manuel Frazao Rodrigues
AU - Ferreira, Rafael
AU - Freitas, Antonio
AU - Morais, Joao Carlos Araujo
AU - Pires, Rui
AU - Gomes, M. J.Veloso
AU - Gago, Paula
AU - Candeias, Rui Alexandre C.
AU - Nunes, Luis
AU - Sa, Joao Vitor Miranda
AU - Ventura, Miguel
AU - de Oliveira, Mario
AU - Alves, Luis Brandao
AU - Bostaca, Ioan
AU - Olariu, Codin T.
AU - Dan, G. A.
AU - Dan, Anca
AU - Podoleanu, Cristian
AU - Frigy, Attila
AU - Georgescu, George I.M.
AU - Arsenescu, Catalina
AU - Statescu, Cristian
AU - Sascau, Radu
AU - Dimitrascu, Dan L.
AU - Rancea, Raluca
AU - Shubik, Yuri V.
AU - Duplyakov, Dmitry
AU - Shalak, Marina
AU - Danielyan, Marine
AU - Galyavich, Albert
AU - Zakirova, Venera
AU - Hatala, Robert
AU - Kaliska, Gabriela
AU - Kmec, Jan
AU - Zupan, Igor
AU - Tasie`, Jerneja
AU - Vokac, Damijan
AU - Edvardsson, Nils
AU - Poci, Dritan
AU - Gamra, Habib
AU - Denguir, Hichem
AU - Sepetoglu, Ahmet
AU - Arat-Ozkan, Alev
AU - Orynchak, Mariya
AU - Paliy, Elena
AU - Vakalyuk, I.
AU - Malidze, David
AU - Prog, Rostyslav
AU - Yabluchansky, Myckola Ivanovich
AU - Makienko, Nataliya Volodimirovna
AU - Potpara, Tatjana
AU - Knezevic, Sofija
AU - Randjelovic, Miomir
N1 - Funding Information: Funding/Support: The Euro Heart Survey is funded by industry sponsors AstraZeneca, Sanofi-Aventis, and Eucomed, and by the Austrian Heart Foundation, Austrian Society of Cardiology, French Federation of Cardiology, Hellenic Cardiological Society, Netherlands Heart Foundation, Portuguese Society of Cardiology, Spanish Cardiac Society, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation and individual centers.
PY - 2010/2/1
Y1 - 2010/2/1
N2 - Background: Contemporary clinical risk stratification schemata for predicting stroke and thromboembolism (TE) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are largely derived from risk factors identified from trial cohorts. Thus, many potential risk factors have not been included. Methods: We refined the 2006 Birmingham/National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) stroke risk stratification schema into a risk factor-based approach by reclassifying and/or incorporating additional new risk factors where relevant. This schema was then compared with existing stroke risk stratification schema in a real-world cohort of patients with AF (n = 1,084) from the Euro Heart Survey for AF. Results: Risk categorization differed widely between the different schemes compared. Patients classified as high risk ranged from 10.2% with the Framingham schema to 75.7% with the Birmingham 2009 schema. The classic CHADS 2 (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age > 75, Diabetes, prior Stroke/transient ischemic attack) schema categorized the largest proportion (61.9%) into the intermediate-risk strata, whereas the Birmingham 2009 schema classified 15.1% into this category. The Birmingham 2009 schema classified only 9.2% as low risk, whereas the Framingham scheme categorized 48.3% as low risk. Calculated C-statistics suggested modest predictive value of all schema for TE. The Birmingham 2009 schema fared marginally better (C-statistic, 0.606) than CHADS 2 . However, those classified as low risk by the Birmingham 2009 and NICE schema were truly low risk with no TE events recorded, whereas TE events occurred in 1.4% of low-risk CHADS 2 subjects. When expressed as a scoring system, the Birmingham 2009 schema (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc acronym) showed an increase in TE rate with increasing scores ( P value for trend = .003). Conclusion: Our novel, simple stroke risk stratification schema, based on a risk factor approach, provides some improvement in predictive value for TE over the CHADS 2 schema, with low event rates in low-risk subjects and the classification of only a small proportion of subjects into the intermediate-risk category. This schema could improve our approach to stroke risk stratification in patients with AF.
AB - Background: Contemporary clinical risk stratification schemata for predicting stroke and thromboembolism (TE) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are largely derived from risk factors identified from trial cohorts. Thus, many potential risk factors have not been included. Methods: We refined the 2006 Birmingham/National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) stroke risk stratification schema into a risk factor-based approach by reclassifying and/or incorporating additional new risk factors where relevant. This schema was then compared with existing stroke risk stratification schema in a real-world cohort of patients with AF (n = 1,084) from the Euro Heart Survey for AF. Results: Risk categorization differed widely between the different schemes compared. Patients classified as high risk ranged from 10.2% with the Framingham schema to 75.7% with the Birmingham 2009 schema. The classic CHADS 2 (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age > 75, Diabetes, prior Stroke/transient ischemic attack) schema categorized the largest proportion (61.9%) into the intermediate-risk strata, whereas the Birmingham 2009 schema classified 15.1% into this category. The Birmingham 2009 schema classified only 9.2% as low risk, whereas the Framingham scheme categorized 48.3% as low risk. Calculated C-statistics suggested modest predictive value of all schema for TE. The Birmingham 2009 schema fared marginally better (C-statistic, 0.606) than CHADS 2 . However, those classified as low risk by the Birmingham 2009 and NICE schema were truly low risk with no TE events recorded, whereas TE events occurred in 1.4% of low-risk CHADS 2 subjects. When expressed as a scoring system, the Birmingham 2009 schema (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc acronym) showed an increase in TE rate with increasing scores ( P value for trend = .003). Conclusion: Our novel, simple stroke risk stratification schema, based on a risk factor approach, provides some improvement in predictive value for TE over the CHADS 2 schema, with low event rates in low-risk subjects and the classification of only a small proportion of subjects into the intermediate-risk category. This schema could improve our approach to stroke risk stratification in patients with AF.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=76749163232&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1378/chest.09-1584
DO - 10.1378/chest.09-1584
M3 - ???researchoutput.researchoutputtypes.contributiontojournal.article???
AN - SCOPUS:76749163232
SN - 0012-3692
VL - 137
SP - 263
EP - 272
JO - Chest
JF - Chest
IS - 2
ER -