TY - JOUR
T1 - Quantifying the Population-Level Effect of the COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Campaign in Israel
T2 - A Modeling Study
AU - Somekh, Ido
AU - Khudabukhsh, Wasiur R.
AU - Root, Elisabeth Dowling
AU - Boker, Lital Keinan
AU - Rempala, Grzegorz
AU - Simões, Eric A.F.
AU - Somekh, Eli
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.
PY - 2022/5/1
Y1 - 2022/5/1
N2 - Background: Estimating real-world vaccine effectiveness is challenging as a variety of population factors can impact vaccine effectiveness. We aimed to assess the population-level reduction in cumulative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) cases, hospitalizations, and mortality due to the BNT162b2 mRNA coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination campaign in Israel during January-February 2021. Methods: A susceptible-infected-recovered/removed (SIR) model and a Dynamic Survival Analysis (DSA) statistical approach were used. Daily counts of individuals who tested positive and of vaccine doses administered, obtained from the Israeli Ministry of Health, were used to calibrate the model. The model was parameterized using values derived from a previous phase of the pandemic during which similar lockdown and other preventive measures were implemented in order to take into account the effect of these prevention measures on COVID-19 spread. Results: Our model predicted for the total population a reduction of 648 585 SARS-CoV-2 cases (75% confidence interval [CI], 25 877-1 396 963) during the first 2 months of the vaccination campaign. The number of averted hospitalizations for moderate to severe conditions was 16 101 (75% CI, 2010-33 035), and reduction of death was estimated at 5123 (75% CI, 388-10 815) fatalities. Among children aged 0-19 years, we estimated a reduction of 163 436 (75% CI, 0-433 233) SARS-CoV-2 cases, which we consider to be an indirect effect of the vaccine. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the rapid vaccination campaign prevented hundreds of thousands of new cases as well as thousands of hospitalizations and fatalities and has probably averted a major health care crisis.
AB - Background: Estimating real-world vaccine effectiveness is challenging as a variety of population factors can impact vaccine effectiveness. We aimed to assess the population-level reduction in cumulative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) cases, hospitalizations, and mortality due to the BNT162b2 mRNA coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination campaign in Israel during January-February 2021. Methods: A susceptible-infected-recovered/removed (SIR) model and a Dynamic Survival Analysis (DSA) statistical approach were used. Daily counts of individuals who tested positive and of vaccine doses administered, obtained from the Israeli Ministry of Health, were used to calibrate the model. The model was parameterized using values derived from a previous phase of the pandemic during which similar lockdown and other preventive measures were implemented in order to take into account the effect of these prevention measures on COVID-19 spread. Results: Our model predicted for the total population a reduction of 648 585 SARS-CoV-2 cases (75% confidence interval [CI], 25 877-1 396 963) during the first 2 months of the vaccination campaign. The number of averted hospitalizations for moderate to severe conditions was 16 101 (75% CI, 2010-33 035), and reduction of death was estimated at 5123 (75% CI, 388-10 815) fatalities. Among children aged 0-19 years, we estimated a reduction of 163 436 (75% CI, 0-433 233) SARS-CoV-2 cases, which we consider to be an indirect effect of the vaccine. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the rapid vaccination campaign prevented hundreds of thousands of new cases as well as thousands of hospitalizations and fatalities and has probably averted a major health care crisis.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Effect
KW - Modeling
KW - Real-Life
KW - Vaccination
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85125689641&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1093/ofid/ofac087
DO - 10.1093/ofid/ofac087
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C2 - 35493128
AN - SCOPUS:85125689641
SN - 2328-8957
VL - 9
JO - Open Forum Infectious Diseases
JF - Open Forum Infectious Diseases
IS - 5
M1 - ofac087
ER -