Prediction of vaginal birth after one ceasarean delivery for non-progressive labor

Purpose: A model exists that predicts the probability of vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC). That model is not stratified by indication at first cesarean. The aim of the study was to identify factors that may predict successful VBAC in patients operated for arrest of dilatation or descent at their first cesarean. Methods: Retrospective analysis of all women with trials of labor after one cesarean (TOLAC) for non-progressive labor between November 2008 and October 2015 was performed (n = 231). A multivariate logistic regression analysis was carried out to generate a prediction model for VBAC at hospital admission for planned TOLAC. Results: During the study period, we had 231 parturient women who chose to undergo TOLAC following one previous cesarean delivery for non-progressive labor. Successful VBAC occurred in 155 (67.0%) parturient women. A model consisting of previous successful VBAC, lower head station on decision at previous cesarean delivery, lower newborn weight at previous cesarean delivery and larger cervical effacement on admission at delivery planned for TOLAC correctly classified 75.3% of cases (R² = 0.324, AUC 0.80, 95% CI 0.70–0.89, p < 0.001). Conclusion: A predictive model, which incorporates four variables available at hospital admission for the planned TOLAC, has been developed that allows the determination of likelihood of successful VBAC following one cesarean delivery for non-progressive labor.