Predicting the future of superhumps in classical nova systems

Oscillations observed in the light curve of Nova V1974 Cygni 1992 since the summer of 1994 have been interpreted as permanent superhumps. From simple calculations based on the tidal disc instability model of Osaki, and assuming that the accretion disc is the dominant optical source in the binary system, we predict that the nova will evolve to become an SU UMa system as its brightness declines from its present value by another 2-3 mag. Linear extrapolation of its current rate of fading (in magnitude units) puts the time of this phase transition within the next 2-4 yr. Alternatively, the brightness decline will stop before the nova reaches that level, and the system will continue to show permanent superhumps in its light curve. It will then be similar to two other old novae, V603 Aq1 and CP Pup, which still display the permanent superhump phenomenon 80 and 56 yr, respectively, after their eruptions. We suggest that non-magnetic novae with short orbital periods could be progenitors of permanent superhump systems.