Predicting and Bypassing End-to-End Internet Service Degradations

Anat Bremler-Barr*, Edith Cohen, Haim Kaplan, Yishay Mansour

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review


We study the patterns and predictability of Internet End-to-End service degradations, where a degradation is a significant deviation of the round trip time between a client and a server. We use simultaneous RTT measurements collected from several locations to a large representative set of Web sites and study the duration and extent of degradations. We combine these measurements with BGP cluster information to learn on the location of the cause. We evaluate a number of predictors based upon Hidden Markov Models and Markov Models. Predictors typically exhibit a tradeoff between two types of errors, false positives (incorrect degradation prediction) and false negatives (a degradation is not predicted). The costs of these error-types is application dependent, but we capture the entire spectrum using a precision versus recall tradeoff. Using this methodology, we learn what information is most valuable for prediction (recency versus quantity of past measurements). Surprisingly, we also conclude that predictors that utilize history in a very simple way perform as well as more sophisticated ones. One important application of prediction is gateway selection, which is applicable when a LAN is connected through multiple gateways to one or several ISP's. Gateway selection can boost reliability and survivability by selecting for each connection the (hopefully) best gateway. We show that gateway selection using our predictors can reduce the degradations to half of that obtained by routing all the connections through the best gateway.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 2nd Internet Measurement Workshop (IMW 2002)
PublisherAssociation for Computing Machinery (ACM)
Number of pages14
ISBN (Print)158113603X, 9781581136036
StatePublished - 2002
EventProceedings of the 2nd Internet Measurement Workshop (IMW 2002) - Marseille, France
Duration: 6 Nov 20028 Nov 2002

Publication series

NameProceedings of the 2nd Internet Measurement Workshop (IMW 2002)


ConferenceProceedings of the 2nd Internet Measurement Workshop (IMW 2002)


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