One-level modeling for diagnosing surface winds over complex terrain. Part II: applicability to short-range forecasting

In a statistical verification for a total of 436 observations, the average direction error and speed error, were only -2.8 deg and 0.11m s^-1, respectively. However, the averaged absolute direction error, ie average |Δθ|, was found to be 49.5 deg. Also, the averaged absolute normalized wind speed error, ie average |ΔV|/V₀ was found to be 37% for all wind intensities exceeding 4m s^-1. Hence, the model's overall wind forecasts were accurate, but not very precise. Although the statistics contain one case, the Siberian high, which was not well simulated, the results (particularly the wind directions) were found to be good. Examples of applications of the model are locating wildland fires, dispersion of air pollutants and prediction of changes in wind energy or of surface wind for low-level air flights. -from Authors