Abstract
This paper proves that there does not exist an asymptotically optimal state-independent change-of-measure for estimating the probability that a random walk with heavy-tailed increments exceeds a "high" threshold before going below zero. Explicit bounds are given on the best asymptotic variance reduction that can be achieved by state-independent schemes.
Original language | English |
---|---|
Pages (from-to) | 251-260 |
Number of pages | 10 |
Journal | Operations Research Letters |
Volume | 35 |
Issue number | 2 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Mar 2007 |
Externally published | Yes |
Keywords
- Asymptotic analysis
- Heavy tails
- Importance sampling
- State-dependent change-of-measure