TY - JOUR
T1 - Modeling polio as a disease of development
AU - Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky, Svetlana
AU - Stone, Lewi
N1 - Funding Information:
We thank Professors Manfred Green, Danny Cohen and Tiberio Swartz for helpful comments and suggestions. We are grateful to Ronen Olinky, Eliezer Shochat, David Bunimovich and Shimon Zeldner for fruitful and stimulating discussions. In addition, we gratefully acknowledge and helpful suggestions of Vincent Jansen and three anonymous reviewers, one of whom suggested the “next generation matrix” approach. The work was supported by the James S McDonnell Foundation.
PY - 2005/12/7
Y1 - 2005/12/7
N2 - Poliomyelitis is a disease which began to appear in epidemic proportions in the late 19th century, paradoxically, just at the time when living conditions and developments in health were transforming enormously for the better. We present a simple age-class model that explains this "disease of development" as a threshold phenomenon. Epidemics arise when improved conditions in hygiene are able to reduce disease transmission of polio amongst children below a critical threshold level. This generates a large susceptible adult population in which, under appropriate conditions, epidemics can propagate. The polio model is analysed in terms of its bifurcation properties and in terms of its non-equilibrium outbreak dynamics.
AB - Poliomyelitis is a disease which began to appear in epidemic proportions in the late 19th century, paradoxically, just at the time when living conditions and developments in health were transforming enormously for the better. We present a simple age-class model that explains this "disease of development" as a threshold phenomenon. Epidemics arise when improved conditions in hygiene are able to reduce disease transmission of polio amongst children below a critical threshold level. This generates a large susceptible adult population in which, under appropriate conditions, epidemics can propagate. The polio model is analysed in terms of its bifurcation properties and in terms of its non-equilibrium outbreak dynamics.
KW - Age-structured model
KW - Contact rate
KW - Disease of development
KW - Environmental factor
KW - Epidemic
KW - Polio
KW - Threshold
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=26944446940&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jtbi.2005.04.017
DO - 10.1016/j.jtbi.2005.04.017
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AN - SCOPUS:26944446940
SN - 0022-5193
VL - 237
SP - 302
EP - 315
JO - Journal of Theoretical Biology
JF - Journal of Theoretical Biology
IS - 3
ER -
