Increased frequency of travel in the presence of cross-immunity may act to decrease the chance of a global pandemic

R. N. Thompson*, C. P. Thompson, O. Pelerman, S. Gupta, U. Obolski

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The high frequency of modern travel has led to concerns about a devastating pandemic since a lethal pathogen strain could spread worldwide quickly. Many historical pandemics have arisen following pathogen evolution to a more virulent form. However, some pathogen strains invoke immune responses that provide partial cross-immunity against infection with related strains. Here, we consider a mathematical model of successive outbreaks of two strains-a low virulence (LV) strain outbreak followed by a high virulence (HV) strain outbreak. Under these circumstances, we investigate the impacts of varying travel rates and cross-immunity on the probability that a major epidemic of the HV strain occurs, and the size of that outbreak. Frequent travel between subpopulations can lead to widespread immunity to the HV strain, driven by exposure to the LV strain. As a result, major epidemics of the HV strain are less likely, and can potentially be smaller, with more connected subpopulations. Cross-immunity may be a factor contributing to the absence of a global pandemic as severe as the 1918 influenza pandemic in the century since. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.

Original languageEnglish
Article number20180274
JournalPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Volume374
Issue number1775
DOIs
StatePublished - 2019

Keywords

  • Antigenic variation
  • Cross-immunity
  • Major epidemic
  • Mathematical modelling
  • Pathogen diversity

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Increased frequency of travel in the presence of cross-immunity may act to decrease the chance of a global pandemic'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this