Inaccurate Politicians: Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries

Stefaan Walgrave; Arno Jansen; Julie Sevenans; Karolin Soontjens; Jean Benoit Pilet; Nathalie Brack; Frédéric Varone; Luzia Helfer; Rens Vliegenthart; Toni van der Meer; Christian Breunig; Stefanie Bailer; Lior Sheffer; Peter John Loewen

doi:10.1086/722042

Inaccurate Politicians: Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries

Stefaan Walgrave, Arno Jansen, Julie Sevenans, Karolin Soontjens, Jean Benoit Pilet, Nathalie Brack, Frédéric Varone, Luzia Helfer, Rens Vliegenthart, Toni van der Meer, Christian Breunig, Stefanie Bailer, Lior Sheffer, Peter John Loewen

School of Political science studies

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

23 Scopus citations

Abstract

Knowledge of what voters prefer is central to several theories of democratic representation and accountability. Despite this, we know little in a comparative sense of how well politicians know citizens’ policy preferences. We present results from a study of 866 politicians in four countries. Politicians were asked to estimate the percentage of public support for various policy proposals. Comparing more than 10,000 estimations with actual levels of public support, we conclude that politicians are quite inaccurate estimators of people’s preferences. They make large errors and even regularly misperceive what a majority of the voters wants. Politicians are hardly better at estimating public preferences than ordinary citizens. They misperceive not only the preferences of the general public but also the preferences of their own partisan electorate. Politicians are not the experts of public opinion we expect them to be.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	209-222
Number of pages	14
Journal	Journal of Politics
Volume	85
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1086/722042
State	Published - 1 Jan 2023

Funding

Funders	Funder number
Comission éthique de la Faculté de Philosophie et sciences sociales de l’ULB
Ethische Adviescommisse Sociale en Humane Wetenschappen of the University of Antwerp
Frédéric Varone and Luzia Helfer
Geneva School of Social Sciences
Jean-Benoit Pilet and Nathalie Brack
Rens Vliegenthart and Toni van der Meer
Wallonia and Brussels-Belgium
Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada
Australian Flora Foundation
Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung	100017_172559
Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS	T.0182.18
Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek	G012517N
Université de Genève

Access to Document

10.1086/722042

Cite this

@article{c41f175b97104ca08b2d700444cec83a,

title = "Inaccurate Politicians: Elected Representatives{\textquoteright} Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries",

abstract = "Knowledge of what voters prefer is central to several theories of democratic representation and accountability. Despite this, we know little in a comparative sense of how well politicians know citizens{\textquoteright} policy preferences. We present results from a study of 866 politicians in four countries. Politicians were asked to estimate the percentage of public support for various policy proposals. Comparing more than 10,000 estimations with actual levels of public support, we conclude that politicians are quite inaccurate estimators of people{\textquoteright}s preferences. They make large errors and even regularly misperceive what a majority of the voters wants. Politicians are hardly better at estimating public preferences than ordinary citizens. They misperceive not only the preferences of the general public but also the preferences of their own partisan electorate. Politicians are not the experts of public opinion we expect them to be.",

author = "Stefaan Walgrave and Arno Jansen and Julie Sevenans and Karolin Soontjens and Pilet, {Jean Benoit} and Nathalie Brack and Fr{\'e}d{\'e}ric Varone and Luzia Helfer and Rens Vliegenthart and {van der Meer}, Toni and Christian Breunig and Stefanie Bailer and Lior Sheffer and Loewen, {Peter John}",

year = "2023",

month = jan,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1086/722042",

language = "אנגלית",

volume = "85",

pages = "209--222",

journal = "Journal of Politics",

issn = "0022-3816",

publisher = "University of Chicago Press",

number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Inaccurate Politicians

T2 - Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries

AU - Walgrave, Stefaan

AU - Jansen, Arno

AU - Sevenans, Julie

AU - Soontjens, Karolin

AU - Pilet, Jean Benoit

AU - Brack, Nathalie

AU - Varone, Frédéric

AU - Helfer, Luzia

AU - Vliegenthart, Rens

AU - van der Meer, Toni

AU - Breunig, Christian

AU - Bailer, Stefanie

AU - Sheffer, Lior

AU - Loewen, Peter John

PY - 2023/1/1

Y1 - 2023/1/1

N2 - Knowledge of what voters prefer is central to several theories of democratic representation and accountability. Despite this, we know little in a comparative sense of how well politicians know citizens’ policy preferences. We present results from a study of 866 politicians in four countries. Politicians were asked to estimate the percentage of public support for various policy proposals. Comparing more than 10,000 estimations with actual levels of public support, we conclude that politicians are quite inaccurate estimators of people’s preferences. They make large errors and even regularly misperceive what a majority of the voters wants. Politicians are hardly better at estimating public preferences than ordinary citizens. They misperceive not only the preferences of the general public but also the preferences of their own partisan electorate. Politicians are not the experts of public opinion we expect them to be.

AB - Knowledge of what voters prefer is central to several theories of democratic representation and accountability. Despite this, we know little in a comparative sense of how well politicians know citizens’ policy preferences. We present results from a study of 866 politicians in four countries. Politicians were asked to estimate the percentage of public support for various policy proposals. Comparing more than 10,000 estimations with actual levels of public support, we conclude that politicians are quite inaccurate estimators of people’s preferences. They make large errors and even regularly misperceive what a majority of the voters wants. Politicians are hardly better at estimating public preferences than ordinary citizens. They misperceive not only the preferences of the general public but also the preferences of their own partisan electorate. Politicians are not the experts of public opinion we expect them to be.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85146265861&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1086/722042

DO - 10.1086/722042

M3 - ???researchoutput.researchoutputtypes.contributiontojournal.article???

AN - SCOPUS:85146265861

SN - 0022-3816

VL - 85

SP - 209

EP - 222

JO - Journal of Politics

JF - Journal of Politics

IS - 1

ER -

Inaccurate Politicians: Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries

Abstract

Funding

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this