TY - JOUR
T1 - Gaps between official and excess Covid-19 mortality measures
T2 - The effects of institutional quality and vaccinations
AU - Aizenman, Joshua
AU - Cukierman, Alex
AU - Jinjarak, Yothin
AU - Nair-Desai, Sameer
AU - Xin, Weining
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2022/11
Y1 - 2022/11
N2 - We evaluate quartile rankings of countries during the Covid-19 pandemic using both official (confirmed) and excess mortality data. By December 2021, the quartile rankings of three-fifths of the countries differ when ranked by excess vs. official mortality. Countries that are ‘doing substantially better’ in the excess mortality are characterized by higher urban population shares; higher GDP/Capita; and higher scores on institutional and policy variables. We perform two regressions in which the ratio of Cumulative Excess to Official Covid-19 mortalities (E/O ratio) is regressed on covariates. In a narrow study, controlling for GDP/Capita and vaccination rates, by December 2021 the E/O ratio was smaller in countries with higher vaccination rates. In a broad study, adding institutional and policy variables, the E/O ratio was smaller in countries with higher degree of voice and accountability. The arrival of vaccines in 2021 and voice and accountability had a discernible association on the E/O ratio.
AB - We evaluate quartile rankings of countries during the Covid-19 pandemic using both official (confirmed) and excess mortality data. By December 2021, the quartile rankings of three-fifths of the countries differ when ranked by excess vs. official mortality. Countries that are ‘doing substantially better’ in the excess mortality are characterized by higher urban population shares; higher GDP/Capita; and higher scores on institutional and policy variables. We perform two regressions in which the ratio of Cumulative Excess to Official Covid-19 mortalities (E/O ratio) is regressed on covariates. In a narrow study, controlling for GDP/Capita and vaccination rates, by December 2021 the E/O ratio was smaller in countries with higher vaccination rates. In a broad study, adding institutional and policy variables, the E/O ratio was smaller in countries with higher degree of voice and accountability. The arrival of vaccines in 2021 and voice and accountability had a discernible association on the E/O ratio.
KW - Excess mortality
KW - Official mortality
KW - Vaccines
KW - Voice and accountability
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85137618126&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105990
DO - 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105990
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C2 - 36034169
AN - SCOPUS:85137618126
SN - 0264-9993
VL - 116
JO - Economic Modelling
JF - Economic Modelling
M1 - 105990
ER -