Forecasting Retail Sales and Dealer Inventories: A Simulation and Decision Support System

Israel Spiegler, Jerome Herniter

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

A simulation model for forecasting retail sales and dealer inventories is presented. The model is based on the average time in distribution (ATD), a new statistic calculated from warranty cards returned by customers after purchasing a product. While warranty card returns are highly random both in number and arrival rate, the ATD is a relatively stable indicator rarely used in forecasting. Sales and inventories are generated by fitting their estimated ATDs to warranty cards. A decision support system (DSS), incorporating the simulation model as well as the standard components database, model base, user interface, report and graph facilities is outlined and discussed.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)268-274
Number of pages7
JournalSimulation
Volume61
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 1993

Keywords

  • Simulation
  • age distribution
  • decision support system (DSS)
  • fitting procedure
  • forecasting

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