We propose a source/channel duality in the exponential regime, where success/failure in source coding parallels error/correctness in channel coding, and a distortion constraint becomes a log-likelihood ratio (LLR) threshold. We establish this duality by first deriving exact exponents for lossy coding of a memoryless source P, at distortion D, for a general i.i.d. codebook distribution Q, for both encoding success (R < R(P, Q, D)) and failure (R > R(P, Q, D)). We then turn to maximum likelihood (ML) decoding over a memoryless channel P with an i.i.d. input Q, and show that if we substitute P = QP, Q = Q, and D = 0 under the LLR distortion measure, then the exact exponents for decoding-error (R < I(Q, P)) and strict correct-decoding (R > I(Q, P)) follow as special cases of the exponents for source encoding success/failure, respectively. Moreover, by letting the threshold D take general values, the exact random-coding exponents for erasure (D > 0) and list decoding (D < 0) under the simplified Forney decoder are obtained. Finally, we derive the exact random-coding exponent for Forney's optimum tradeoff erasure/list decoder, and show that at the erasure regime it coincides with Forney's lower bound and with the simplified decoder exponent, settling a long standing conjecture.