Exploring the applicability of future air quality predictions based on synoptic system forecasts

Yuval, David M. Broday, Pinhas Alpert

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

For a given emissions inventory, the general levels of air pollutants and the spatial distribution of their concentrations are determined by the physiochemical state of the atmosphere. Apart from the trivial seasonal and daily cycles, most of the variability is associated with the atmospheric synoptic scale. A simple methodology for assessing future levels of air pollutants' concentrations based on synoptic forecasts is presented. At short time scales the methodology is comparable and slightly better than persistence and seasonal forecasts at categorical classification of pollution levels. It's utility is shown for air quality studies at the long time scale of a changing climate scenario, where seasonality and persistence cannot be used. It is demonstrated that the air quality variability due to changes in the pollution emissions can be expected to be much larger than that associated with the effects of climatic changes.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)65-74
Number of pages10
JournalEnvironmental Pollution
Volume166
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 2012

Keywords

  • Air quality management
  • Climate change
  • Synoptic classification

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Exploring the applicability of future air quality predictions based on synoptic system forecasts'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this