TY - JOUR
T1 - Expectation setting and retrospective voting
AU - Malhotra, Neil
AU - Margalit, Yotam
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© Southern Political Science Association, 2014.
PY - 2014/7/21
Y1 - 2014/7/21
N2 - That citizens engage in retrospective voting is widely established in the literature. But to what extent is retrospection affected by the expectations that leaders set in advance? We develop a theoretical framework of how expectation setting affects voters' retrospective evaluations of incumbent performance. To test the theory, we conduct a series of between-subjects experiments in which we independently manipulate both expectation setting and the eventual outcome. In domains where politicians have practical authority, or direct influence over outcomes, setting high expectations incurs a cost in public support if the projected outcome is not attained. The same is true in domains where politicians have theoretical authority, or limited influence, but where expectation setting sends a signal about the leader's judgment. However, in domains where politicians have neither practical nor theoretical authority, setting high expectations is unambiguously beneficial, implying that optimism is valued by voters as a personality disposition.
AB - That citizens engage in retrospective voting is widely established in the literature. But to what extent is retrospection affected by the expectations that leaders set in advance? We develop a theoretical framework of how expectation setting affects voters' retrospective evaluations of incumbent performance. To test the theory, we conduct a series of between-subjects experiments in which we independently manipulate both expectation setting and the eventual outcome. In domains where politicians have practical authority, or direct influence over outcomes, setting high expectations incurs a cost in public support if the projected outcome is not attained. The same is true in domains where politicians have theoretical authority, or limited influence, but where expectation setting sends a signal about the leader's judgment. However, in domains where politicians have neither practical nor theoretical authority, setting high expectations is unambiguously beneficial, implying that optimism is valued by voters as a personality disposition.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84911457392&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1017/S0022381614000577
DO - 10.1017/S0022381614000577
M3 - ???researchoutput.researchoutputtypes.contributiontojournal.article???
AN - SCOPUS:84911457392
SN - 0022-3816
VL - 76
SP - 1000
EP - 1016
JO - Journal of Politics
JF - Journal of Politics
IS - 4
ER -