Elapsed time since BNT162b2 vaccine and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection: Test negative design study

Ariel Israel*, Eugene Merzon, Alejandro A. Schäffer, Yotam Shenhar, Ilan Green, Avivit Golan-Cohen, Eytan Ruppin, Eli Magen, Shlomo Vinker

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Objectives To determine whether time elapsed since the second injection of the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine was significantly associated with the risk of covid-19 infection after vaccination in people who received two vaccine injections. Design Test negative design study. Setting Electronic health records of a large state mandated healthcare organisation, Israel. Participants Adults aged =18 years who had received a reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test between 15 May 2021 and 17 September 2021, at least three weeks after their second vaccine injection, had not received a third vaccine injection, and had no history of covid-19 infection. Main outcome measures Positive result for the RT-PCR test. Individuals who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and controls were matched for week of testing, age category, and demographic group (ultra-orthodox Jews, individuals of Arab ancestry, and the general population). Conditional logistic regression was adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, and comorbid conditions. Results 83 057 adults received an RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 during the study period and 9.6% had a positive result. Time elapsed since the vaccine injection was significantly longer in individuals who tested positive (P<0.001). Adjusted odds ratio for infection at time intervals >90 days since vaccination were significantly increased compared with the reference of <90 days: 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.67 to 3.36) for 90-119 days, 2.66 (1.94 to 3.66) for 120-149 days, 2.82 (2.07 to 3.84) for 150-179 days, and 2.82 (2.07 to 3.85) for =180 days (P<0.001 for each 30 day interval). Conclusions In this large population of adults tested for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR after two doses of mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine, a gradual increase in the risk of infection was seen for individuals who received their second vaccine dose after at least 90 days.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere067873
JournalThe BMJ
Volume375
DOIs
StatePublished - 24 Nov 2021

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