El Niño chaos: Overlapping of resonances between the seasonal cycle and the pacific ocean-atmosphere oscillator

Eli Tziperman, Lewi Stone, Mark A. Cane, Hans Jarosh

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is modeled as a low-order chaotic process driven by the seasonal cycle. A simple model suggests that the equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere oscillator can go into nonlinear resonance with the seasonal cycle and that with strong enough coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, the system may become chaotic as a result of irregular jumping of the ocean-atmosphere system among differeng nonlinear resonances. An analysis of a time series from an ENSO prediction model is consistent with the low-order chaos mechanism.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)72-74
Number of pages3
JournalScience
Volume264
Issue number5155
DOIs
StatePublished - 1994
Externally publishedYes

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