Efficient Bayesian network learning for system optimization in reliability engineering

We present a new Bayesian network modeling that learns the behavior of an unknown system from real data and can be used for reliability engineering and optimization processes in industrial systems. The suggested approach relies on quantitative criteria for addressing the trade-off between the complexity of a learned model and its prediction accuracy. These criteria are based on measures from Information Theory as they predetermine both the accuracy as well as the complexity of the model. We illustrate the proposed method by a classical example of system reliability engineering. Using computer experiments, we show how in a targeted Bayesian network learning, a tremendous reduction in the model complexity can be accomplished, while maintaining most of the essential information for optimizing the system.