Do the emergency medical services need more paramedics? an examination of supply and demand

Background: Paramedics are a critical national resource. The paramedic workforce is dynamic and has never been studied, thereby limiting the possibility of appropriate planning. Objectives: To examine the present and projected supply and demand for paramedics, the balance between supply and demand, and how this affects the planning of the paramedic workforce. Methods: Supply was assessed by the annual number of graduates of paramedic training programs, the duration of stay in the profession and the likelihood of staying in the profession, using data obtained by structured telephone interviews with a sample of graduates of paramedic courses. Demand was assessed by interviewing key figures in the emergency medical services (EMS). Results: There are about 1000 certified paramedics in Israel. Of them, 64% are active in the civilian labor market. If the demand does not change beyond the natural annual increase of two advanced life support (ALS) ambulances (which are staffed by paramedics), there may be a surplus of 180 paramedics by 2010. Increased demand outside the EMS may temporarily absorb this surplus, but it will reappear by 2015 or 2020. Conversely, upgrading all ambulances to ALS vehicles will result in a shortage of 400-900 paramedics by 2010 (depending on the number of paramedics per vehicle) if the number of paramedics trained annually is not increased. Conclusions: These findings may provide a better basis for long-term planning for training, recruitment, and employment of paramedics and may serve as an example for workforce planning for other health professions.