Determinants of Confidence in Accuracy of Knowledge Retrieval

It was hypothesised that retrospective feelings of confidence in accuracy of knowledge retrieval are, at least in part, influenced by factors that differ from those responsible for the accuracy of knowledge retrieval. The initial level of confidence was suggested to be a major determinant of retrospective confidence which does not affect performance, and quality of available information was thought to be a determinant of performance quality which does not affect retrospective feelings of confidence. To test these hypotheses, bank managers were presented with cases of trials in the domain of banking law. The managers were provided with information which could have either low, medium or high diagnostic value and were asked to predict the trial outcome. Half the cases were difficult and half were easy in terms of being able to predict the outcome. Levels of managers' initial and retrospective feelings of confidence were measured. The hypotheses were supported and it was suggested that the lack of sensitivity of a person's retrospective confidence to his or her actual performance level is related to the dissociation between processes leading to feelings of retrospective confidence and processes responsible for performance quality.