Desired fertility and rural-to-urban migration in less developed countries: the positive connection.

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Abstract

Presents a new approach to the theory of rural to urban migration in LDCs, based upon considerations of surplus insufficiency (of the family farm) and risk averseness. Rural to urban migration of a family member can act as a sufficient condition for achieving technological change by helping in the accumulation of surplus (acting as an intermediate investment), and through diversification of sources of income can aid the control of the level of risk. The second section hypothesizes that the special role that children fulfil as migrants exerts a positive influence on desired fertility. Section three examines migration-related factors which will increase the desire for children and those which will decrease it. On balance it seems that the desire for children in the long run probably decreases, though in the medium term it does not decrease. -from WAERSA

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