Aging and the Demographic Ecology of Urban Areas

One of the striking demographic characteristics of industrial and postindustrial societies is the continuing decline in mortality and fertility. As its consequence, the elderly in developed nations are becoming a steadily growing proportion of the population. Moreover, they tend to concentrate, usually in older neighborhoods located close to the center of the city (Newcomer, 1986; Pampel and Choldin, 1978; Smith and Hiltner, 1975). Both processes, the aging of the population and the spatial clustering of the elderly, have significant implications for the urban ecology and affect many aspects of urban development and public policy. In particular, they are likely to have important effects on social programs which focus on the adult population (see, e.g., Huttman and Gurewitsch, 1987; and others). It would therefore indeed be valuable to know, whether spatial concentrations of the elderly are a temporary phenomenon, and which factors may affect their future development.