TY - JOUR

T1 - Aggregation of multiple prior opinions

AU - Crès, Hervé

AU - Gilboa, Itzhak

AU - Vieille, Nicolas

PY - 2011/11

Y1 - 2011/11

N2 - Experts are asked to provide their advice in a situation of uncertainty. They adopt the decision maker's utility function, but each has a potentially different set of prior probabilities, and so does the decision maker. The decision maker and the experts maximize the minimal expected utility with respect to their sets of priors. We show that a natural Pareto condition is equivalent to the existence of a set Λ of probability vectors over the experts, interpreted as possible allocations of weights to the experts, such that (i) the decision maker's set of priors is precisely all the weighted-averages of priors, where an expert's prior is taken from her set and the weight vector is taken from Λ; (ii) the decision maker's valuation of an act is the minimal weighted valuation, over all weight vectors in Λ, of the experts' valuations.

AB - Experts are asked to provide their advice in a situation of uncertainty. They adopt the decision maker's utility function, but each has a potentially different set of prior probabilities, and so does the decision maker. The decision maker and the experts maximize the minimal expected utility with respect to their sets of priors. We show that a natural Pareto condition is equivalent to the existence of a set Λ of probability vectors over the experts, interpreted as possible allocations of weights to the experts, such that (i) the decision maker's set of priors is precisely all the weighted-averages of priors, where an expert's prior is taken from her set and the weight vector is taken from Λ; (ii) the decision maker's valuation of an act is the minimal weighted valuation, over all weight vectors in Λ, of the experts' valuations.

KW - Aggregation of opinions

KW - Ambiguity

KW - Multiple priors

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=82155166312&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.jet.2011.06.018

DO - 10.1016/j.jet.2011.06.018

M3 - מאמר

AN - SCOPUS:82155166312

VL - 146

SP - 2563

EP - 2582

JO - Journal of Economic Theory

JF - Journal of Economic Theory

SN - 0022-0531

IS - 6

ER -