Age and duration of bleeding symptoms at diagnosis best predict resolution of childhood immune thrombocytopenia at 3, 6, and 12 months

Objective To evaluate the predictive value of clinical features at diagnosis of immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) for resolution of disease. Study design Hospital records of 472 consecutive children (<18 years old) with ITP cared for at 2 participating centers were reviewed retrospectively and data related to the initial presentation were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was used for calculating prediction of resolution at 3, 6, and 12 months from diagnosis. Results The most significant predictors for resolution of ITP at 3, 6, and 12 months were age at onset <10 years and abrupt onset (history of <2 weeks of bleeding). We designed a prediction rule for ITP chronicity based on these criteria. The rate of developing chronic ITP for low, intermediate, and high risk children at diagnosis of ITP was 11%, 39%, and 63%, respectively. Recovery rate at 3 months for low, intermediate, and high risk children was 72%, 43% and 30%, respectively. Conclusions We present a simple rule to predict recovery from ITP at 3, 6, and 12 months from diagnosis. For prediction of resolution at 3 months, our rule was in agreement with the more complex, previously described Nordic score. Prediction of resolution of ITP may enable practitioners to better inform children and parents at the time of diagnosis, resulting in reduced anxiety and improved quality of life.