A test for a shift in the boundary of the geographical range of a species

Andrew Solow; Andrew Beet; Uri Roll; Lewi Stone

doi:10.1098/rsbl.2013.0808

A test for a shift in the boundary of the geographical range of a species

Andrew Solow^*, Andrew Beet, Uri Roll, Lewi Stone

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Zoology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

One predicted impact of climate change is a poleward shift in the boundaries of species ranges. Existingmethods for identifying such a boundary shift based on changes in the observed pattern of occupancy within a grid of cells are sensitive to changes in the overall rate of sightings and their latitudinal distribution that are unconnected to a boundary shift. A formal test for a boundary shift is described that allows for such changes. The test is applied to detect northward shifts in the northern boundary of the Essex skipper (Thymelicus lineola) butterfly and the European goldfinch (Carduelis carduelis) in Great Britain. A shift is detected in the latter case but not in the former. Results from a simulation study are presented showing that the test performs well.

Original language	English
Article number	20130808
Journal	Biology Letters
Volume	10
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2013.0808
State	Published - Feb 2014

Keywords

Climate change
Extreme value statistics
Occupancy
Species range

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1098/rsbl.2013.0808

Cite this

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abstract = "One predicted impact of climate change is a poleward shift in the boundaries of species ranges. Existingmethods for identifying such a boundary shift based on changes in the observed pattern of occupancy within a grid of cells are sensitive to changes in the overall rate of sightings and their latitudinal distribution that are unconnected to a boundary shift. A formal test for a boundary shift is described that allows for such changes. The test is applied to detect northward shifts in the northern boundary of the Essex skipper (Thymelicus lineola) butterfly and the European goldfinch (Carduelis carduelis) in Great Britain. A shift is detected in the latter case but not in the former. Results from a simulation study are presented showing that the test performs well.",

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AB - One predicted impact of climate change is a poleward shift in the boundaries of species ranges. Existingmethods for identifying such a boundary shift based on changes in the observed pattern of occupancy within a grid of cells are sensitive to changes in the overall rate of sightings and their latitudinal distribution that are unconnected to a boundary shift. A formal test for a boundary shift is described that allows for such changes. The test is applied to detect northward shifts in the northern boundary of the Essex skipper (Thymelicus lineola) butterfly and the European goldfinch (Carduelis carduelis) in Great Britain. A shift is detected in the latter case but not in the former. Results from a simulation study are presented showing that the test performs well.

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A test for a shift in the boundary of the geographical range of a species

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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