TY - JOUR
T1 - A Review of Ex-Post Evidence for Mode Substitution and Induced Demand Following the Introduction of High-Speed Rail
AU - Givoni, Moshe
AU - Dobruszkes, Frédéric
N1 - Funding Information:
We wish to thank three anonymous reviewers for their useful comments and suggestions, Myoungshin Kim for her help with the Korean report and Pierre Zembri for advice on the French experience. This research is part of the DATE project, financed by the European Commission under a Marie Curie Intra-European Fellowship for Career Development. It only reflects the authors’ view and the European Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.
PY - 2013/11
Y1 - 2013/11
N2 - To date, relatively little is known about the nature of the demand for high-speed rail (HSR) soon after inauguration of the services, despite close to 50-year experience of HSR operation and 17 166 km of HSR network around the world. This is a real lacuna given the scale of HSR construction around the world, the amount of resources committed to it, the desired accessibility, economic and environmental effects associated with HSR development and the relatively poor track record of forecasting demand for HSR services. Focusing on mode substitution and induced demand effects, this review aims to fill the gap in knowledge about the ex-post demand for HSR services in order to facilitate a learning process for the planning of the future HSR network. Although there is not much evidence on the demand for HSR services and existing evidence is largely influenced by route-specific characteristics, a methodological limitation that must be acknowledged, the evidence presented allows a better characterisation of HSR as a mode of transport. The review shows that the demand for HSR a few years after inauguration is about 10-20% induced demand and the rest is attributed to mode substitution. In terms of mode substitution, in most cases the majority of HSR passengers have used the conventional rail before. Substitution from aircraft, car and coach is generally more modest.
AB - To date, relatively little is known about the nature of the demand for high-speed rail (HSR) soon after inauguration of the services, despite close to 50-year experience of HSR operation and 17 166 km of HSR network around the world. This is a real lacuna given the scale of HSR construction around the world, the amount of resources committed to it, the desired accessibility, economic and environmental effects associated with HSR development and the relatively poor track record of forecasting demand for HSR services. Focusing on mode substitution and induced demand effects, this review aims to fill the gap in knowledge about the ex-post demand for HSR services in order to facilitate a learning process for the planning of the future HSR network. Although there is not much evidence on the demand for HSR services and existing evidence is largely influenced by route-specific characteristics, a methodological limitation that must be acknowledged, the evidence presented allows a better characterisation of HSR as a mode of transport. The review shows that the demand for HSR a few years after inauguration is about 10-20% induced demand and the rest is attributed to mode substitution. In terms of mode substitution, in most cases the majority of HSR passengers have used the conventional rail before. Substitution from aircraft, car and coach is generally more modest.
KW - ex-post evaluation
KW - high-speed rail
KW - induced demand
KW - intermodal competition
KW - mode substitution
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84889645321&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/01441647.2013.853707
DO - 10.1080/01441647.2013.853707
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AN - SCOPUS:84889645321
SN - 0144-1647
VL - 33
SP - 720
EP - 742
JO - Transport Reviews
JF - Transport Reviews
IS - 6
ER -