A clinical predictive model for live birth in women of advanced age undergoing PGT cycles

Purpose: The trend of delaying childbirth has resulted in a growing number of advanced-aged women who are opting for preimplantation genetic testing (PGT) to screen for monogenic diseases or structural chromosomal rearrangements (PGT-M and PGT-SR). This increase in demand necessitates the development of a clinical predictive model for live birth outcomes in these women. Therefore, the objective of this study is to construct a comprehensive predictive model that assesses the likelihood of achieving a successful live birth in advanced-aged women undergoing PGT-M and PGT-SR treatments. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of 37–45-year-old women undergoing preimplantation genetic testing for monogenic disease or structural chromosomal rearrangement cycles from 2010 to 2021 was conducted at a university hospital reproductive centre. The purpose was to develop a clinical predictive model for live birth in these women. The main outcome studied was the cumulative live birth rate in the first or subsequent cycles. Developing a decision tree enabled a comprehensive study of clinical parameters and expected outcomes. Results: The analysis included 158 women undergoing 753 preimplantation genetic testing cycles. The cumulative live birth rate was 37.342% (59/158). Decision tree analysis revealed that women aged ≤ 40.1 or women > 40.1 with one or more top-quality transferable embryos in their first cycle had the best chance for a live baby (56% and 41%, respectively). Those older than 40.1 without top-quality embryos and seven or fewer dominant follicles had no live births. A Kaplan–Meier curve showed that for autosomal dominant diseases, there was a negligible increase in live birth rate after three cycles, compared to six cycles in autosomal recessive inheritance. Conclusion: In older women, the chance of delivering after repeated cycles is higher in those with at least one top-quality unaffected embryo in their first preimplantation genetic testing cycle. Additional preimplantation genetic testing cycles after three in carriers of an autosomal dominant disorder and six in those with an autosomal recessive disorder should be considered prudently.