A Bayesian paradox

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A seemingly plausible application of Bayesian decision-theoretic reasoning to determine one's rational degrees of belief yields a paradoxical conclusion: one ought to jettison one's intermediate credences in favour of more extreme (opinionated) ones. I discuss various attempts to solve the paradox, those involving the acceptance of the paradoxical conclusion, and those which attempt to block its derivation.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)51-66
Number of pages16
JournalBritish Journal for the Philosophy of Science
Issue number1
StatePublished - Mar 2001


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