האם הדמוגרפיה תכריע? יחסי כוח בין המגזרים בישראל שלאחר שלטון האחוסלים

Against the backdrop of the attempted judicial overhaul, tensions between different sectors in Israeli society are intensifying. In this paper, were visit the seminal work of Baruch Kimmerling, who announced the end of secular Zionist hegemony and the emergence of succession struggles. Using a Weberianapproach, we analyze recent shifts in demographic, economic, and political powerrelations among the five main sectors of Israeli society: secular, traditional andnational-religious Jews, ultra-Orthodox Jews, and Arabs. We find that despiteits political weakening, the secular sector maintains its position of leadership in terms of economic power and military recruitment rates. Together, these factorsgrant it structural power and provide a means of resisting the judicial overhaul.Conversely, the political power of the national-religious sector is increasing,while the political representation of the Arab and ultra-Orthodox sectors remainssubstantially unchanged. This finding casts doubt on the approach that we label demographic determinism, which assumes that population growth would translatedirectly into political power. Lastly, we propose that the struggle between the two forms of Israeli nationalism – secular-liberal and religious-particularistic – will be decided by the traditional sector, whose complex religious, ethnic, and class position places it in the middle between the two camps.